House Price Appreciation Slows Further

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
November 30, 2006
Stefanie Mullin

HOUSE PRICE APPRECIATION SLOWS FURTHER

OFHEO House Price Index Shows Declines in Five States, Continued
Deceleration in Others

WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. home prices rose in the third quarter of this year, but the rate of increase continued to slow and some areas experienced actual price declines. Nationally, home prices were 7.73 percent higher in the third quarter of 2006 than they were one year earlier. Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 0.86 percent, or an annualized rate of 3.45 percent. This reflects a further slowdown from that reported for the second quarter when the quarterly appreciation rate was 1.3 percent and the annualized rate was 5.1 percent. The quarterly increase is the lowest since the second quarter of 1998. The figures were released today by OFHEO as part of the House Price Index (HPI), a quarterly report analyzing housing price appreciation trends.

“Our newest data confirm last quarter’s data that the housing market is in a decidedly different stage,” said OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart. “With U.S. house prices growing less than one percent during the third quarter, it provides more evidence that the longforecasted national deceleration in house prices is occurring. Given the five-year appreciation prior to this quarter of 56.8 percent, the slowdown is not unexpected. There are still some areas where appreciation rates remain very high but now they are the exception rather than the norm,” Lockhart said.

Since the spring of 2004, year-over-year house price appreciation has fallen from a peak of 13.9 percent to 7.7 percent this quarter. Despite the deceleration, house prices grew faster over the past year than did prices of non-housing goods and services reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI prices rose 3.1 percent.

There is an 82 page PDF report at :
OFHEO Full Report

Market Summary - Housing Market Condition Jan 1, 2007

................................... Current ............. Current
MSA................................ Rating ............. Projection

ALBANY, NY............................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
ALBUQUERQUE, NM ................ STABLE ........... IMPROVING
ATLANTA, GA............................. STABLE ............SOFTENING
AUSTIN, TX................................. STABLE ........... IMPROVING
BALTIMORE, MD........................ STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
BATON ROUGE, LA................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
BIRMINGHAM, AL ..................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
BOSTON, MA ............................. STABLE ............SOFTENING
BUFFALO, NY............................. SOFT..............NO CHANGE
CHARLESTON, SC...................... STRONG .......NO CHANGE
CHARLOTTE, NC........................ STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
CHICAGO, IL .............................. STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
CINCINNATI, OH....................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
CLEVELAND, OH........................ SOFT..............NO CHANGE
COLUMBUS, OH........................ STABLE ............SOFTENING
DALLAS, TX................................. STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
DAYTON, OH............................. SOFT..............NO CHANGE
DENVER, CO .............................. STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
DES MOINES, IA ......................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
DETROIT, MI............................... SOFT...............WEAKENING
EDISON, NJ................................. STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
FT. LAUDERDALE, FL ................. STRONG ........STABILIZING
GRAND RAPIDS, MI................... SOFT..............NO CHANGE
GREENSBORO, NC .................... STABLE ............SOFTENING
GREENVILLE, SC ......................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
HARTFORD, CT.......................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
HONOLULU, HI......................... STRONG ....... STABILIZING
HOUSTON, TX........................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
INDIANAPOLIS, IN..................... SOFT..............NO CHANGE
JACKSONVILLE, FL ..................... STRONG .......NO CHANGE
KANSAS CITY, KS-MO................ STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
LANSING, MI.............................. SOFT..............NO CHANGE
LAS VEGAS, NV.......................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
LOS ANGELES, CA...................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
LOUISVILLE, KY.......................... STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
MEMPHIS, TN............................. STABLE ..........NO CHANGE
MIAMI. FL ................................... SOFT..............NO CHANGE
MILWAUKEE, WI.........................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
MINNEAPOLIS, MN....................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
NASHVILLE, TN...........................STABLE............IMPROVING
NASSAU-SUFFOLK, NY ..............STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
NEW ORLEANS, LA.....................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
NEW YORK, NY ..........................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
OAKLAND, CA............................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK...............STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
OMAHA, NE................................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
ORLANDO, FL.............................STRONG........ STABILIZING
PHILADELPHIA, PA.....................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
PHOENIX, AZ..............................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
PITTSBURGH. PA........................STABLE............ SOFTENING
PORTLAND, OR..........................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
PROVIDENCE, RI.........................STABLE............ SOFTENING
RALEIGH, NC ..............................STABLE............IMPROVING
RICHMOND. VA.........................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
RIVERSIDE-SAN
BERNARDINO, CA..............STRONG........ STABILIZING
ROCHESTER, NY.........................SOFT ............. NO CHANGE
SACRAMENTO, CA.....................STABLE............ SOFTENING
SALT LAKE, UT ............................STRONG....... NO CHANGE
SAN ANTONIO, TX.....................STABLE............IMPROVING
SAN DIEGO, CA..........................STABLE............ SOFTENING
SAN FRANCISCO, CA.................SOFT ...............IMPROVING
SAN JOSE, CA..............................SOFT ............. NO CHANGE
SANTA ANA, CA .........................STABLE............ SOFTENING
SEATTLE, WA...............................STRONG....... NO CHANGE
SPRINGFIELD, MA.......................STABLE............ SOFTENING
ST. LOUIS, MO............................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
SYRACUSE, NY............................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
TAMPA, FL...................................STRONG........ STABILIZING
TOLEDO, OH..............................STABLE............ SOFTENING
TUCSON, AZ...............................STRONG....... NO CHANGE
TULSA, OK ..................................STABLE.......... NO CHANGE
WASHINGTON, DC....................STRONG........STABILIZING
WEST PALM BEACH, FL..............STRONG........ STABILIZING
*Bold indicates a change from the previous quarter.

Produced by: MGIC Credit Policy Department

Taken from :

www.MGIC.com